People are leaving - are you?

Migration patterns within the US may be breaking tradition, and some of the big player states are starting to see the effect of pricing out their residents and businesses.


New York was one of the 10 US states/territories to see a decrease in population last year, second only to Puerto Rico. Considering Puerto Rico can pin more uncontrollable issues for high departures like natural disasters, New York's loss of overall residents is telling of our current market - it is saying that among other factors, we have an affordability crisis.




Though NY and NYC boast a growth in population in the past decade (from 2017 to 2010), it does not reflect the rate of growth between these years. This is a gross overlook in understanding a quickly shifting market. In other words, even if population is rising, it's at increasingly slower rates, which can lead to what we are now experiencing: a population drop.


To put this into perspective, the last time NY saw this was in 2010, and the time before that was the 1970s... However, we'll put the financial market aside right now and focus on our national moving patterns (can't talk about these trends without at least pointing out why!)


The Northeast region overall is experiencing high emigration patterns in the past year. This is particularly due to existing tax grievances worsened by the 2018 Tax Reform, and poor timing with the baby boomer generation reaching retirement stages.


Over this past decade, the population rates of the Northeast and Midwest are virtually standstill, while the South and West welcome growing populations and economies. The value of space and freedom (which takes multiple meanings, including political) is being readily reevaluated, triggering decisions to change scenery.


This is not as hard of a decision as some may think. In fact, over 1/3 of long-time living urban residents would move if they were given the chance.


So where are people going? To the South, or West.


It is not only cost of living that is driving residents out; cost of business is driving out workplaces, especially larger companies, which further drives out residents. The recent reversal of tech giant Amazon's decision to set up HQ2 in Long Island City, Queens, is evidence of this. But that's for another blog...



Want to see more data? Check out each state's population estimates and growth rates from 2010-2018 (based on the US Census Bureau Population Estimates). Bonus: there's a doozying but colorful chart at the end ;) (I'll make this more interactive, soon...)


Sources include:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2018/estimates-national-state.html

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk#

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/data-maps/nyc-population/current-future-populations.page

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/what-unites-and-divides-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/